Sunday, March 28, 2021

Should most Americans care about the rest ?

I immigrated to Canada, from a Deep South US state, in 2005, along with my wife and my 14 year old daughter.  I was 48 years old, and I now have long personal experiences with the medical system in both Canada and the US. 

I would never suggest to anyone that better medical care or facilities or equipment or professionals is available anywhere in the world than what is available in the US.   The problem, in the US, is that access to that medical care is increasingly rationed based on ability to pay for it, and a growing number of Americans are finding themselves forced to forgo necessary care for financial reasons. 

I was one of the lucky ones, too ... I had a lot of career success; I wrote a best-selling technical (Linux) book in 2000 ... but after my wife's colon cancer experience (which gave us those famous "pre-existing conditions") and my being caught in a corporate "downsizing", I understood that it would not take much of an emergency to put us in a very bad situation.  I could not ignore how many Americans suffered from no fault of their own ... and I changed my attitudes dramatically.

The best measure of the greatness of a nation (in my opinion) is in how it treats its citizens who are the weakest, most vulnerable, the elderly, the infirm, the handicapped. 

The US is losing something that is a lot more important than their economic and military dominance of the planet ... Americans are losing their claim (in the eyes of the entire world) to being a people of compassion.

Is it worth it?  I don't think so.   I think it's yet another in a series of very bad choices.

Indeed ... most Americans are probably in very good shape.  As long as they choose not to care about those who are not as fortunate, most Americans have no reason to hope for change.

But "most" is the problem.  "Most" excludes millions of Americans.  So the divide is really between those who think that those millions of Americans don't count ... and those who think they do.

I think they do matter ... because the measure of the greatness or goodness of a society is in how well it treats its most vulnerable; its infirm, its weak and elderly.  It's poor.

America is trying to determine whether it will be great and good ... or sell its soul to the highest bidder.  America is in the process of making that choice, whether people are aware of it or not.  And the choice is profound, because it will set the country on a course that may prove impossible to reverse.

That's why the opponents of the health care have resorted to a campaign of lies and fear rhetoric.  They do not use fact or reason, or offer alternative solutions.   Because they have already made their choices, and an honest, open, fair-minded debate is not in their best interest. 

What do you believe?

Saturday, March 6, 2021

The climate models have been uncannily accurate

For what it's worth, any claims you may have heard that there is a gap between the major climate model projections for global temperature and actual observed temperatures are false.

In the chart below, a composite model of climate change projections is compared to four of the most widely-respected datasets of actual, measured, and globally averaged temperature measures:

UK Meteorological Office/Hadley Center's Climate Research Unit HadCRUT5
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP 

The black line on the chart is the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), which combines multiple projections/predictions into a single projection.  The gray area represents the area of 95% certainty around that single projection (essentially, it encompasses 95% of the variability in the various models, most of that variability is based on different scenarios for the future, such as population growth/decline, increase/reduction in the use of fossil fuels).  

Although neither is used in the chart, the datasets of both Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) are in close agreement with the others.

Climate models and projections of global warming have proven to be extremely reliable.