Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Iran: No credible threat

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed documents that he claimed prove that Iran lied to the world about its nuclear program for years, even after the 2015 nuclear deal with the world.  Netanyahu claimed an advanced secret Iranian nuclear weapons program that does not exist.

Within one day, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)  issued its own assessment (Tuesday) addressing those allegations of a "secret" Iranian nuclear program. Their assessment:  There are "no credible indications of any Iranian activities after 2009."

The IAEA, therefore, agrees with all 16 US intelligence agencies that have affirmed and reaffirmed that Iran abandoned interest in nuclear weapons years ago ... declaring that nothing has changed since the last National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's "Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" in November 2007, which declared that Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon capability.  US intelligence agency officials have stated that they continue to believe that Iran had not restarted its weaponization program, which the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate said Iran had discontinued in 2003. 

Iran's offensive military capacity has not changed since 2007.  Benjamin Netanyahu is way out in left field on this one.  He  tried to present old research as new evidence, and then claims even more secret activities that are still on-going. 

The reaction seems to be the general consensus across most of the world that Netanyahu's lying.  Again. 
This time, "Bibi's" latest preposterous claims have been met with the ridicule they deserve (and I find that delightful).

Iran hasn't launched an aggressive military attack on another country in over 200 years.  Other than empty rhetoric, Iran poses no immediate threat of doing so now; certainly not with nuclear weapons.  How do I know that?  I don't  ... but I have that on the authority of 16 U.S. Intelligence agencies.  All 16.  No immediate threat. [verify it]

Of course, I also have the wisdom of experience and the benefit of hindsight, and so do you.  We (you and I) know better than to believe unfounded claims to the contrary.  Lies.

Yet, I'm often asked, "how can you be so sure you're right about that?"  Because of what I've witnessed with my own eyes.  And, those eyes, I trust.
Recall that, immediately after the November 7 2016 US Presidential election, Israel massed tens of thousands of heavily-armed troops along the Gaza border and waited for the green light from Washington.  They were testing the resolve of President Obama.  That green light never came.  Instead, President Obama told Israel to stand down. His brokered "cease fire" was a way for them to save face.  Without a firm US commitment of support for the use of those troops, Israel stood down. And I was astounded.  I fully expected a war on Iran by that year's end.  President Obama prevented it.

President Obama, under relentless pressure from the government of Israel, the neoconservative warhawks in Congress and the AIPAC lobby, refused to give the Israelis the satisfaction of having the United States kiss their boots. President Obama is the first US President since George H. W. Bush (41) who hasn't made himself an instrument of Israel's policies of aggression.  And that took guts.

Benjamin Netanyahu was absolutely beside himself in fury.  He and his Likud Party were forced to stand down after the US refused to become involved in Israel's conflict in Gaza.

Netanyahu thinks Trump is his bitch now.  And that's what the world is waiting to find out ... is he right about that?


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